20 Jan 2026
Roger Bird, Head of Trading, Risk, and Markets, examines the UK and Europe’s growing reliance on U.S. LNG and asks whether the shift away from Russian gas is creating a new strategic dependency. With geopolitical risk rising and markets facing 2026, he explores what this evolving landscape could mean for energy security, pricing, and volatility.
A topic I find very interesting as well as relevant, is the subject around LNG gas requirements for the UK and Europe, and how the U.S can influence European pricing.
At present the outlook and landscape is healthy. The UK is on course to finish winter with gas storage levels at a reasonable position to previous years, as well as ample LNG arrivals from the U.S, Qatar, and Algeria.
Clearly this is a great position to be in considering the previous reliance on Russian gas for Europe, that culminated in the EU needing to break the relationship after Russia invaded Ukraine, contributing to an astonishing price spike in 2022.
However, what if the EU and UK are falling into another potential relationship with the U.S who hold all the power just like Russia did?
Flows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States into Europe have surged year on year since 2021. Let’s look at the figures:
- Market Dominance: In the third quarter of 2025, the US accounted for 59.9% of all EU LNG imports. When considering the total gas mix (including pipeline), the US provided approximately 27% of the EU’s total gas imports by mid-2025, a massive increase from just 4% in 2019.
- Replacing Russia: Russia’s share of EU total natural gas imports fell to 11% by the second quarter of 2025, down from 51% in 2019. This gap has been filled almost entirely by US LNG and increased pipeline flows from Norway.
- Extreme Regional Reliance: Specific EU nations have become nearly entirely dependent on US supply. By late 2025, the US provided over 80% of LNG imports for Germany (94%), Greece (84%), and Finland (81%).
- Infrastructure Lock-in: The EU spent approximately €117.4 billion on US LNG between early 2022 and June 2025, cementing a lucrative transatlantic trade corridor.
Europe will likely sit at or near these record levels of LNG imports throughout this year with Asian spot demand remaining subdued as it stands. Fill up well ahead of 2026 winter and all is fine one would assume.
The US military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and White House threats to acquire Greenland by force have, in a short space of time, potentially put the EU and UK at risk of further supply issues.
The real problem starts where geopolitics start to become a more influential force over fundamentals alone. 2026 could see geopolitics become the main threat rather than just a risk amongst others.
We could see Europe and the UK become majorly dependent on the U.S for LNG imports just as it had with Russia previously.
However, if the U.S tries to take Greenland which would majorly undermine Europe and threaten NATOs existence, will we be forced to find alternative LNG sources rather than the U.S? Creating volatility, tighter demand, and increase in gas and power prices.
Of course, these are just ‘what ifs’ and seemingly out of reach views as it stands, however, certainly topical, interesting, and one to keep an eye on that further cements the UK and Europe’s need to widen relationships and invest heavily in domestic generation for future energy security.
Meet Roger Bird, Head of Trading, Risks, and Markets at Inteb Managed Services. With a proven track record in energy procurement and contract management, Roger leads with innovation and a steadfast commitment to sustainability. His expertise spans risk management, energy procurement, and fostering robust client relationships, driving Inteb towards its mission of making the transition to a low carbon society both profitable and sustainable for its clients. Connect with Roger to discover how Inteb’s solutions can elevate your business.
Biography
Roger Bird stands at the forefront of Inteb Managed Services as the Head of Trading, Risks, and Markets. With a robust background in energy procurement and contract/account management, Roger has consistently surpassed targets and driven Inteb towards its mission of fostering a low carbon society. His strategic acumen and dedication have played a pivotal role in promoting innovation, awareness of best practices, and demonstrating the profitability of sustainability.
Areas of Expertise
Roger’s expertise spans across a broad spectrum of critical areas in energy management, including:
Risk Management: Masterfully navigating market uncertainties to safeguard client interests.
Energy Procurement and Wholesale Energy: Strategising procurement to optimise energy costs and sustainability.
Account and Contract Management: Ensuring impeccable service delivery and client satisfaction.
Energy Reduction and Legislation: Championing energy efficiency and compliance with evolving regulations.
Relationship and New Business Development: Building and nurturing client relationships while identifying growth opportunities.
Roger’s proficiency extends to technical analysis, database management, and utilising Reuters Software for market insights, showcasing his versatility and comprehensive understanding of the energy sector.
Key Contributions
Roger has been instrumental in developing and implementing Inteb’s energy procurement services, aligning with the company’s overarching objectives. His leadership has not only retained key clients but also expanded Inteb’s clientele through innovative solutions and meticulous market analysis. Roger’s approach to client management—characterised by empathy, integrity, and respect—reflects “The Inteb Way,” ensuring that customer experiences are both rewarding and enriching.
Under Roger’s guidance, his team has made significant strides in improving processes, enhancing customer experiences, and achieving financial growth targets. His contributions to business development, particularly in flexible and risk-led energy offerings, have positioned Inteb as a leader in energy and sustainability solutions.
Thought Leadership
Roger’s insights into energy markets, procurement strategies, and risk management are not only invaluable to Inteb but also to the broader industry. His ability to distil complex market data into understandable and actionable intelligence has made him a sought-after speaker at industry events and a reliable source of market bulletins for clients.
Connect with Roger
Engage with Roger to explore how Inteb’s energy management solutions can transform your business. Connect on LinkedIn for his latest thoughts on energy markets and sustainability.
Roger.Bird@inteb.uk
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